Estimated race of Maryland voters
Maryland does not record a voter's race. These figures are estimates, made from each registered voter's name and ZIP code, for the State Board of Elections' statewide voter list as of August 12, 2026.
An estimate for a group, never a fact about a person. Each voter's race is a set of probabilities (Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding, the wru package), built from their surname, first and middle names and the share of each race in their ZIP code. A count here is the sum of those probabilities for a group of voters, rounded. The method is least reliable for Black voters in integrated areas, for multiracial voters, and for small groups.
No individual estimate is published, and counts of 1 to 9 are hidden. How the estimate works and where it errs.
Statewide
Estimated race of the 4,561,126 registered voters on the list, active and inactive, next to the share of each group among Maryland adults in the 2020 Census.
| Estimated race | Expected voters | Share of registered voters | Share of adults, 2020 Census | Difference (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 2,386,180 | 52.3% | 49.9% | +2.4 |
| Black | 1,356,736 | 29.7% | 28.8% | +0.9 |
| Hispanic | 326,718 | 7.2% | 10.2% | -3.0 |
| Asian | 268,751 | 5.9% | 6.9% | -1.0 |
| Other or multiracial | 222,741 | 4.9% | 4.2% | +0.7 |
The two shares measure different groups, and registration rates differ, so a gap is not an error in either. It is a rough check: a large gap in a county is a reason to trust that county's estimate less.
Race and party
The estimate does not use party registration, so these tables are not circular.
Estimated race of each party's voters
| Party | Registered | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other or multiracial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 2,337,698 | 40.5% | 41.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Republican | 1,073,315 | 78.6% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Unaffiliated | 1,063,352 | 52.3% | 23.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| All registered voters | 4,561,126 | 52.3% | 29.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% |
Party of each estimated race's voters
| Estimated race | Expected voters | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other parties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 2,386,180 | 39.7% | 35.3% | 23.3% | 1.7% |
| Black | 1,356,736 | 72.0% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 2.0% |
| Hispanic | 326,718 | 52.5% | 14.4% | 30.5% | 2.6% |
| Asian | 268,751 | 46.7% | 15.5% | 35.8% | 2.0% |
| Other or multiracial | 222,741 | 52.5% | 18.3% | 27.0% | 2.1% |
Race and age
Age is age on the date of the voter list. The estimate does not use age.
| Age | Registered | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other or multiracial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 18 | 9,552 | 47.1% | 25.6% | 13.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| 18-24 | 455,921 | 44.8% | 29.4% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% |
| 25-34 | 757,158 | 47.3% | 32.0% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 35-44 | 792,332 | 50.3% | 31.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| 45-54 | 681,625 | 49.2% | 31.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% |
| 55-64 | 741,829 | 54.9% | 29.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| 65-74 | 630,280 | 59.6% | 26.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| 75+ | 492,361 | 61.6% | 25.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% |
| Unknown | 68 | 44.1% | 36.8% | – | – | – |
By county
- under 20%
- 20 to 40%
- 40 to 60%
- 60 to 80%
- 80% or more
- under 15%
- 15 to 30%
- 30 to 45%
- 45 to 60%
- 60% or more
- under 4%
- 4 to 8%
- 8 to 12%
- 12 to 16%
- 16% or more
- under 4%
- 4 to 8%
- 8 to 12%
- 12 to 16%
- 16% or more
- under 1.5%
- 1.5 to 3%
- 3 to 4.5%
- 4.5 to 6%
- 6% or more
Where the estimate runs below the Census, it is likely placing Black voters in another group, the method's best-known weakness. The Census counts every adult, registered or not, and Somerset's includes a large state prison, so some gap is expected everywhere.
- estimate lower: under -6 pts
- -6 to -2 pts
- -2 to 2 pts
- 2 to 6 pts
- estimate higher: 6 pts or more
| County | Registered | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other or multiracial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegany | 47,486 | 91.4% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| Anne Arundel | 452,677 | 68.7% | 17.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% |
| Baltimore City | 426,120 | 31.4% | 58.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 4.4% |
| Baltimore County | 608,962 | 55.5% | 31.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Calvert | 74,714 | 79.3% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| Caroline | 24,090 | 80.6% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 3.2% |
| Carroll | 138,013 | 89.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.5% |
| Cecil | 79,267 | 84.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 4.3% |
| Charles | 139,064 | 35.2% | 53.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 5.7% |
| Dorchester | 25,246 | 64.9% | 28.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 3.1% |
| Frederick | 223,014 | 72.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% |
| Garrett | 22,142 | 97.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| Harford | 209,422 | 76.1% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.5% |
| Howard | 254,503 | 51.2% | 18.5% | 5.3% | 19.1% | 5.9% |
| Kent | 15,136 | 83.2% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 2.6% |
| Montgomery | 755,828 | 44.7% | 16.6% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 6.5% |
| Prince George's | 657,657 | 12.9% | 68.5% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% |
| Queen Anne's | 43,897 | 89.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 3.0% |
| Somerset | 15,262 | 63.6% | 30.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 3.7% |
| St. Mary's | 85,478 | 76.2% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 5.0% |
| Talbot | 30,722 | 82.9% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| Washington | 112,900 | 79.9% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 4.4% |
| Wicomico | 72,587 | 64.1% | 26.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% |
| Worcester | 46,939 | 84.5% | 9.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 3.0% |
| Maryland | 4,561,126 | 52.3% | 29.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% |
By district
Congressional districts
| District | Registered | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other or multiracial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 609,300 | 77.6% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.9% |
| 02 | 568,400 | 63.6% | 24.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% |
| 03 | 595,787 | 62.4% | 17.1% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 5.3% |
| 04 | 480,202 | 12.6% | 64.9% | 14.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 05 | 628,725 | 45.6% | 42.8% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 5.1% |
| 06 | 577,501 | 66.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.0% |
| 07 | 541,861 | 33.6% | 55.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.4% |
| 08 | 559,350 | 48.2% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 6.7% |
Legislative districts
| District | Registered | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other or multiracial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01A | 31,760 | 96.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.7% |
| 01B | 33,311 | 90.0% | 5.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.8% |
| 01C | 32,906 | 87.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 3.3% |
| 02A | 66,211 | 84.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 3.9% |
| 02B | 29,189 | 66.8% | 19.3% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 5.8% |
| 03 | 100,421 | 60.3% | 16.1% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| 04 | 108,856 | 81.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% |
| 05 | 105,532 | 88.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% |
| 06 | 85,616 | 65.0% | 22.4% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 5.5% |
| 07A | 67,255 | 70.3% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| 07B | 36,671 | 84.4% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% |
| 08 | 88,887 | 49.4% | 36.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| 09A | 69,260 | 59.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 23.2% | 5.0% |
| 09B | 32,991 | 53.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 28.7% | 5.0% |
| 10 | 91,174 | 33.5% | 53.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% |
| 11A | 28,720 | 34.6% | 52.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% |
| 11B | 67,019 | 67.8% | 19.3% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% |
| 12A | 67,261 | 50.8% | 23.3% | 5.9% | 13.6% | 6.5% |
| 12B | 30,230 | 53.1% | 30.0% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 5.6% |
| 13 | 97,128 | 44.5% | 25.8% | 7.3% | 15.9% | 6.5% |
| 14 | 99,149 | 43.3% | 24.2% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 5.9% |
| 15 | 104,553 | 43.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 28.3% | 6.7% |
| 16 | 104,982 | 65.1% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 7.7% |
| 17 | 89,242 | 44.8% | 12.3% | 16.5% | 19.8% | 6.6% |
| 18 | 87,920 | 51.7% | 12.4% | 20.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% |
| 19 | 87,910 | 38.6% | 17.9% | 22.8% | 14.1% | 6.5% |
| 20 | 82,984 | 37.7% | 30.7% | 17.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% |
| 21 | 83,372 | 33.8% | 36.3% | 15.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% |
| 22 | 76,104 | 18.4% | 52.0% | 20.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% |
| 23 | 110,197 | 19.0% | 67.2% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 4.8% |
| 24 | 102,812 | 6.7% | 80.4% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| 25 | 105,762 | 5.1% | 86.0% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| 26 | 101,101 | 7.5% | 77.5% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% |
| 27A | 37,233 | 22.5% | 66.1% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 5.2% |
| 27B | 39,536 | 50.3% | 40.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 4.8% |
| 27C | 37,140 | 79.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 5.0% |
| 28 | 115,240 | 36.5% | 51.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 5.7% |
| 29A | 35,234 | 85.8% | 7.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 4.0% |
| 29B | 30,312 | 61.1% | 24.7% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 6.3% |
| 29C | 36,934 | 80.1% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 4.9% |
| 30A | 65,409 | 76.9% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 3.8% |
| 30B | 34,536 | 85.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 31 | 106,210 | 77.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.9% |
| 32 | 93,169 | 46.4% | 33.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| 33A | 32,199 | 56.3% | 26.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% |
| 33B | 37,531 | 81.5% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% |
| 33C | 36,567 | 85.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% |
| 34A | 68,380 | 56.3% | 31.1% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 5.9% |
| 34B | 36,305 | 80.2% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% |
| 35A | 72,176 | 89.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% |
| 35B | 35,419 | 87.4% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 4.1% |
| 36 | 107,680 | 85.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 37A | 29,680 | 48.0% | 43.5% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 3.7% |
| 37B | 72,425 | 80.2% | 13.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.9% |
| 38A | 34,380 | 68.8% | 25.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 3.5% |
| 38B | 29,297 | 60.8% | 27.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% |
| 38C | 40,155 | 89.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.9% |
| 39 | 86,951 | 28.4% | 22.1% | 24.0% | 19.4% | 6.2% |
| 40 | 91,421 | 24.0% | 67.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| 41 | 93,359 | 28.6% | 63.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 4.5% |
| 42A | 36,608 | 89.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% |
| 42B | 29,383 | 71.1% | 13.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 4.6% |
| 42C | 35,369 | 91.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 43A | 62,904 | 29.8% | 60.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
| 43B | 25,412 | 65.0% | 23.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% |
| 44A | 26,987 | 58.0% | 24.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| 44B | 61,901 | 31.6% | 55.6% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| 45 | 90,539 | 19.4% | 73.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 46 | 87,897 | 55.6% | 27.4% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| 47A | 47,752 | 11.5% | 59.1% | 24.0% | 1.4% | 3.9% |
| 47B | 15,010 | 10.6% | 39.6% | 41.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% |
About these numbers
- Race is estimated, not recorded. Maryland's voter file has no race or ethnicity field. Each voter's race is estimated from their surname, first and middle names and ZIP code with Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG, the wru package). The estimate for one voter is a set of probabilities, never a fact about that person.
- Counts are expected values: the sum of the probabilities for each group, rounded. They describe groups of voters and are most reliable for large groups. A cell of 1 to 9 is hidden like any other.
- BISG is known to err in a pattern. In integrated areas it tends to place Black voters in the white group, and it identifies multiracial voters, Native Americans and Pacific Islanders poorly: all of them land in 'other' or in another group. Hispanic and Asian estimates rest heavily on surname.
- ZIP code is coarser than a census block, so the geographic part of the estimate is weaker than in studies that geocode addresses. Voters with no usable ZIP code are placed using their county.
- The estimate does not use party, age or sex, so the race by party and race by age tables do not repeat what the model was given. Active and inactive registrants are both counted.
- The comparison with the Census is rough: it sets the estimated race of registered voters against the 2020 voting-age population, and registration rates differ by group.
- Method: BISG (wru predict_race, model = BISG), using surname, first, middle, conditioned on ZIP code tabulation area, county where there is none (2020 Census, wru 3.1.0). 100.0% of voters were placed by ZIP code and 0.0% by county.
- Source: Maryland State Board of Elections voter registration list and the U.S. Census Bureau's 2020 redistricting data, aggregated by Skipjack. Downloads and the provenance record are on the Data page.